Oregon hasn't had a Republican governor since 1987, but almost 40 years later, it's looking increasingly likely that they'll have one come the 2022 election. In a three-way race, Christine Drazan leads against Democrat Tina Kotek and Betsy Johnson, a Democrat turned Independent. RealClearPolitics (RCP) currently has a +3 lead for Drazan.
The latest poll is especially encouraging, as it shows Drazan with a lead of 6 percentage points. A poll of 842 likely voters conducted by Clout Research from October 8-9 shows that Drazan has a 43.8 percent lead, compared to Kotek's 38.4 percent and Johnson's 11.1 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.38 percent, putting Drazan's ahead of that.
When respondents were asked if, regardless of candidate, they'd support the GOP candidate, 45.5 percent indicated they would, and 43.5 percent indicated they'd support the Democratic candidate. Eleven percent said they'd support the third party candidate.
Interactive Polls in sharing the poll noted how this is a 2 point shift in favor of Drazan from September.
The poll had more damning results for Democrats. Two-thirds of respondents, at 66.8 percent, said that they think "government officials, at the local, state, and national levels, are now making decisions" that make their life worse. Even more respondents, 74.1 percent, said that they think the state leaders are making decisions "driven more by political agendas and ideologies that might not be best for Oregon families."
The results on a "Post-Covid world" were particularly interesting. A majority, at 54.4 percent, said that they less trust "in "Oregon state leaders and local leaders to make the right decisions to help the state grow and thrive, and to improve your life and your family's life." While 32.2 percent said their trust was about the same, 13.1 percent have more trust.
The poll included a plurality of voters who considered themselves "moderate," at 34.2 percent.
Election Day is now less than four weeks away. Cook Political Report moved the race into the "Toss-Up" category last month. RCP also has it as a "Toss-Up," and projects it to be a "GOP Pick Up."